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The Swan Report, August 2025: A Seller's Market Under $3M, a Buyer's Market Over $5M

The Swan Report, August 2025: A Seller's Market Under $3M, a Buyer's Market Over $5M

Statistics in this report are from Santa Barbara MLS (FlexMLS) data for single-family homes and PUDs on the South Coast (Santa Barbara, Montecito, Goleta, Carpinteria and Summerland). Closed sales are for June 2025; active listings are as of June 30, 2025. Duplicate MLS records are removed.

Happy Summer!

I hope you're enjoying this beautiful season. We've certainly been lucky with the amazing weather and clear skies for the fireworks. It's moments like these that remind me how fortunate we are to call this incredible place home.

A Market That Depends on Price Point

On the real estate front, the market continues to shift, and interestingly, it's doing so differently depending on price point. As expected, demand remains stronger for lower-priced homes, simply because there are more buyers in that range. It's important to remember that the key metric we look at is months of inventory, which helps define the type of market we're in:

  • 0 to 3 months: Seller's market
  • 3 to 6 months: Balanced or neutral market
  • 6+ months: Buyer's market

Where We Stand by Price Range

  • Under $3M: 123 active, 56 closed in June, 2.2 months of inventory (seller's market)
  • $3M to $5M: 74 active, 15 closed, 4.9 months of inventory (balanced)
  • Over $5M: 131 active, 13 closed, about 10 months of inventory (buyer's market)
  • All price points: 328 active, 84 closed, 3.9 months of inventory (balanced)

As you can see, homes under $3M are firmly in seller's market territory, while the luxury segment over $5M is squarely a buyer's market. It's a nuanced landscape right now.

Also worth noting: June 2025 numbers are almost identical to June 2024 in both number of sales (84 vs. 82) and average sales price ($3.30M vs. $3.26M). The median, however, rose about 12%, from $1.94M to $2.18M, a sign that the middle of the market is still appreciating.

June 2025 Market Snapshot

  • Most Expensive Home Sold: $23,760,000 (1803 Fernald Point Ln, Montecito)
  • Least Expensive Home Sold: $778,000 (523 W Ortega St, Santa Barbara)
  • Median Price Home Sold: $2,182,100
  • Average Price Home Sold: $3,302,896
  • Average Cumulative Days on Market: 41 days

Wishing you a joyful, sunshine-filled summer!

Cheers,

Curtis Swan II
(805) 607-9709

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Work With Curtis

Curtis approaches his life and profession with enthusiasm, honesty, and integrity. To him, there is nothing more rewarding than helping his clients achieve their homeownership and financial goals. Through robust marketing, skillful negotiation, and exceptional customer service, Curtis offers a full-service, client-first approach to real estate.

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